Kentucky Derby Betting: That Was Then - This Is Now

By Greg Melikov
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

Horse Racing Betting at WagerWeb Racebook

Seven years ago I wrote: Logic usually doesn’t figure in picking the Kentucky Derby champion. During the past quarter-century, only two horses who figured to romp did: Fusaichi Pegasus, 2000, the first victorious favorite since Spectacular Bid, 1979.
  
Since ’01, two lukewarm favorites were victorious: Smarty Jones, 4-1, in ’04, and Street Sense, 9-2, last year. During a 17-year span, nine favorites won from ’61 when Carry Back scored to ’77 when Seattle Slew triumphed.
 
I also wrote: Winning the final prep before the Run for the Roses isn’t nearly as important as hitting the board.
 
That holds up. Since ’01 three ran first in their final prep while three were runners-up. Giacomo finished fourth in the ’05 Santa Anita Derby before surprising at Churchill Downs and returning $102.60. It was the largest payoff next to Donerail’s $184.90 in ’13.
 
During the ’90s, two horses that ran fourth in their final prep won at Louisville: Thunder Gulch in ’95 and Sea Hero in ’93 – both in the Blue Grass at Keeneland.
 
I also wrote: No Derby winner with fewer than five career starts has won since the great Exterminator in 1918. That remains true.

Back then I wrote: No horse with less than one victory has triumphed.
 
Giacomo did – seven months after breaking his maiden at Santa Anita. However, if you go way back, three maidens smelled the roses: Buchanan, the 11th Derby champ in 1884; Sir Barton, who won the Triple Crown in 1919; and Brokers Tip, victorious by a nose in 1933.
 
I noted: No gelding has triumphed since ’29. Funny Cide ended that streak in ’03. I also pointed out: No competitor since ’71 who won the last prep outside the United States has scored. That streak is unbroken -- Venezuelan thoroughbred champion Canonero II was the last 37 years ago. And I wrote: Post positions sometime play a part in deciding the race (63 of the 127 winners came from the inside seven slots while only 13 won from No. 13 and out).

 

Four of the last seven winners broke from posts 5 through 7. Giacomo drew No. 10 while Monarchos scored from post 16 in ’01. From ’88 through ’00, seven that smelled the roses drew post 10 and outward. Thunder Gulch and Fusaichi Pegasus did from post 16.                                 
 
If you have a favorite jockey or trainer, take note that nine different riders were aboard Kentucky Derby champs sent out by nine different conditioners since ’99.                  

Kent Desormeaux rode the first of his two winners at Louisville when Real Quiet scored at Louisville in ’98. Ironically, Bob Baffert saddled that West Coast invader, his second of three horses to visit the winner’s circle.
     
Desormeaux has a chance to repeat at Churchill Downs. He rides Big Brown on Saturday in the $1 million Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. And he likely will be aboard Fountain of Youth Stakes victor Cool Coal Man in the $750,000 Blue Grass on April 12.
 
However, Baffert admit he’s unlikely to have a 3-year-old in this year’s Kentucky Derby despite 10 nominations.
 
“I have a couple good-looking ones, but I’m not going to go to the Derby if I have no shot to win it,” the trainer recently told BloodHorse.com. “The thing about the Derby is that you can’t make it happen. You train them and if they are good enough you’ll know. You can't push it.”