Clinton vs. Obama: Democratic race in stretch run

By Jordan Walters
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

San Jose, Costa Rica, May 5, 2008 -- The race for the Democratic presidential nomination has been one of the most intriguing in history, and with only a handful of state primaries remaining, the nominee choice between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama remains too close to call.

Clinton, a +$300 betting underdog at WagerWeb.com to win the nomination, is generally winning the women's vote, the Hispanic vote and the white male over age 45 vote. Obama, -$500 at WagerWeb.com, is dominating among youths and blacks.

Obama has the close delegate count lead, but suddenly Clinton has the momentum after a big win in Pennsylvania on April 22. That nine-point victory brought in millions in pledges to her campaign, including some $10 million in just 24 hours, with the focus of both senators next turning to the May 6 primaries in Indiana (where Clinton is likely to win) and North Carolina (where Obama should emerge victorious).

And still to be decided are what the unpredictable superdelegates will do. Clinton can't win the most delegates in the primaries, so she is trying to woo the superdelegates by saying she is more likely to beat Republican John McCain in the fall. Obama would become the nominee if the superdelegates simply ratify the primary and caucus results.

Clinton reminds people that more people have voted for her than Obama. She included the votes from Michigan and Florida, giving her a narrow lead. But Democratic Party officials are refusing to recognize the Michigan and Florida votes - although that is being challenged and could move Clinton that much closer to Obama.

And last week, Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean said that either Clinton or Obama must drop out of the Democratic presidential race after the June primariesin order to unify the party by the convention and win the election in November.

Dean didn't say which candidate should drop out, only that it should happen after primary voters have been to the polls.

"Either of these candidates, if it's time for them to go, they'll know it and they will go," Dean said. "They don't need any pushing from me. You know when to get in and you know when to get out. That's just part of the deal."

However, the latest Associated Press-Ipsos poll makes it unlikely that Clinton will bow out. It shows she actually does have a better chance than Obama of beating McCain in November.

Clinton has gained ground in a hypothetical head-to-head match up with the GOP nominee-in-waiting; she now leads McCain, 50 percent to 41 percent, while Obama remains virtually tied with McCain, 46 percent to 44 percent.

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